FLDAS-Forecast
FLDAS-Forecast (Hazra et al., 2023) is a custom instance of NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS; Arsenault et al., 2020). The FLDAS-Forecast system was developed to provide seasonal drought forecasts that are relevant for USAID and USACE activities in the Middle East and Africa, based on existing NASA Earth science capabilities. Primary goals include: (1) supporting USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to better predict water supply deficits related to agricultural drought and food insecurity, and (2) provide indicators related to forecasted hydrological anomalies and conditions.
Disclaimer: The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.
Displaying Items 1 - 10 of 38
Precipitation-total: East-Africa
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Precipitation Anomaly (left) and Percentile (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Precipitation - Total
Streamflow : East Africa
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Monthly Streamflow Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), Standardized anomaly (lower left) and Probability tercile (lower right) Forecasts
Variable:
Streamflow
Root Zone Soil Moisture: East Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture: East Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right)
The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. root zone soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: East Africa
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3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation : East Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.
Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).
Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation
Surface Soil Moisture: East Africa
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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: East Africa
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3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
Water Stress: Eastern Africa
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Water Stress (left) and Change in Water Stress (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Water Stress
Streamflow : Southern Africa
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Monthly Streamflow Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), Standardized anomaly (lower left) and Probability tercile (lower right) Forecasts
Variable:
Streamflow