FLDAS-Forecast
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model (FLDAS-Forecast, Hazra et al. 2023) is run over Africa and the Middle East and produces monthly forecasts at 0.25° spatial resolution out to 5 months over Africa and the Middle East (-20 to 60°E, -40 to 40°N). Forecasts are typically available by the 15th of the first forecast month. As a custom instance of the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS, Arsenault et al. 2020), FLDAS-Forecast uses land surface models of Noah-MP (version 3.6) and NASA’s Catchment Model (CLSM, version 2.5), and HyMAP2 routing within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Initial conditions for the FLDAS-Forecast model are generated by forcing the models with CHIRPS precipitation and MERRA-2 non-precipitation meteorological datasets. Two types of forecasts are generated: 1) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-based forecasts using NMME precipitation and GEOS version 2 non-precipitation meteorological forecasts and 2) ensemble streamflow prediction method-based forecasts using CHIRPS and MERRA-2 meteorological datasets. FLDAS-Forecast hindcast and retrospective model outputs are available from 1982 to present by request. All indices (e.g., anomalies, percentiles, terciles) are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 hindcast climatology, with the exception of streamflow percentiles and terciles. Streamflow percentiles and terciles are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 retrospective model output. Please refer to the FLDAS Model Specification webpage for additional details on the FLDAS-Forecast system.
Disclaimer: The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.
Displaying Items 21 - 30 of 53
Water Stress: Southern Africa
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Water Stress (left) and Change in Water Stress (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Water Stress
Terrestrial Water Storage: Southern Africa
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Monthly Terrestrial Water Storage Percentile (upper left), and Anomaly (upper right) Forecasts
Variable:
Terrestrial Water Storage
Probabilistic Forecasts for Terrestrial Water Storage: Southern Africa
The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 30 members (1991-2020) for ESP (left) and all members for NMME (right). These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of terrestrial water storage being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile). For example, the grid cells depicted by dark green [brown] color are likely to be in 'Above normal' ['Below Normal'] category. Probability values are shown only when the probability of being in a given category is greater than 40% and is in white otherwise. Note that climatologically, the probability of being in a given tercile category is 33%.
Variable:
Terrestrial Water Storage
Streamflow: Western Africa
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Monthly Streamflow Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), Standardized anomaly (lower left) and Probability tercile (lower right) Forecasts.
Variable:
Streamflow
Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right).
The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. root zone soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation: Western Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.
Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).
Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation
Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts For Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right).
The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. surface soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture