FLDAS-Forecast
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model (FLDAS-Forecast, Hazra et al. 2023) is run over Africa and the Middle East and produces monthly forecasts at 0.25° spatial resolution out to 5 months over Africa and the Middle East (-20 to 60°E, -40 to 40°N). Forecasts are typically available by the 15th of the first forecast month. As a custom instance of the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS, Arsenault et al. 2020), FLDAS-Forecast uses land surface models of Noah-MP (version 3.6) and NASA’s Catchment Model (CLSM, version 2.5), and HyMAP2 routing within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Initial conditions for the FLDAS-Forecast model are generated by forcing the models with CHIRPS precipitation and MERRA-2 non-precipitation meteorological datasets. Two types of forecasts are generated: 1) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-based forecasts using NMME precipitation and GEOS version 2 non-precipitation meteorological forecasts and 2) ensemble streamflow prediction method-based forecasts using CHIRPS and MERRA-2 meteorological datasets. FLDAS-Forecast hindcast and retrospective model outputs are available from 1982 to present by request. All indices (e.g., anomalies, percentiles, terciles) are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 hindcast climatology, with the exception of streamflow percentiles and terciles. Streamflow percentiles and terciles are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 retrospective model output. Please refer to the FLDAS Model Specification webpage for additional details on the FLDAS-Forecast system.
Disclaimer: The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.
Displaying Items 21 - 30 of 38
3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation: Western Africa
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Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.
Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).
Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation
Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
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3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts
Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
Water Stress: Western Africa
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Water Stress (left) and Change in Water Stress (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Water Stress
Precipitation-total: Continental Africa
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Precipitation Anomaly (left) and Percentile (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Precipitation - Total
Continental Africa Forecast Percentile
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Precipitation (left) and Root Zone Soil Moisture (right) Percentile Forecasts
Variable:
Precipitation - Total, Root Zone Soil Moisture
Continental Africa Forecast Percentile
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Precipitation (left) and Root Zone Soil Moisture (right) Percentile Forecasts
Variable:
Precipitation - Total, Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture
The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of root zone soil moisture being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile). For example, the grid cells depicted by dark green [brown] color are likely to be in 'Above normal' ['Below Normal'] category. Probability values are shown only when the probability of being in a given category is greater than 40% and is in white otherwise. Note that climatologically, the probability of being in a given tercile category is 33%.
Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Water Stress: Continental Africa
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Water Stress (left) and Change in Water Stress (right) Forecasts
Variable:
Water Stress