FLDAS-Forecast

Summary

The FLDAS-Forecast is a custom instance of NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS; Arsenault et al., 2020). The FLDAS-Forecast system was developed to provide seasonal drought forecasts that are relevant for USAID and USACE activities in the Middle East and Africa, based on existing NASA Earth science capabilities. Primary goals include: (1) supporting USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to better predict water supply deficits related to agricultural drought and food insecurity, and (2) provide indicators related to forecasted hydrological anomalies and conditions.

Disclaimer:  The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.

Displaying Items 11 - 20 of 34

Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern Africa
Forecast for Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right).

The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. root zone soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern Africa
Forecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Southern Africa

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3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation : Southern Africa
Forecast for Soil Percent Saturation : Southern AfricaForecast for Soil Percent Saturation : Southern Africa

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Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.

Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).

Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation
Surface Soil Moisture: Southern Africa
Forecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Southern Africa

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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Southern Africa
Forecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Southern AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Southern Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
Streamflow: Western Africa
Forecast for Streamflow: Western AfricaForecast for Streamflow: Western AfricaForecast for Streamflow: Western AfricaForecast for Streamflow: Western Africa

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Monthly Streamflow Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), Standardized anomaly (lower left) and Probability tercile (lower right) Forecasts.

Variable:
Streamflow
Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
Forecast for Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
Forecast for Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for Probabilistic Forecasts For Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right).

The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. root zone soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa
Forecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: Western Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation: Western Africa
Forecast for Soil Percent Saturation: Western AfricaForecast for Soil Percent Saturation: Western Africa

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.

Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).

Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation

Contact: Abheera Hazra (UMD/ESSIC; NASA/GSFC), Kristi Arsenault (SAIC; NASA/GSFC) or S. Shukla (UCSB) for more information.

References

  • Arsenault, K.R., and Coauthors, 2020: The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E1007–E1025, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0264.1.
  • Shukla, S., and Coauthors, 2020: Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1187-1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020
  • Hazra, A., and Coauthors, 2021: NASA's NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa. Journal of Hydrology (In review).

Original project details: The original project, Forecasting for Africa and the Middle East (FAME), was funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Program and included partners from NASA, USAID, USGS, UCSB, Johns Hopkins University, ICBA, and DoD/ERDC.  Details of the original project can be found here.