FLDAS-Forecast

Summary

The FLDAS-Forecast is a custom instance of NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS; Arsenault et al., 2020). The FLDAS-Forecast system was developed to provide seasonal drought forecasts that are relevant for USAID and USACE activities in the Middle East and Africa, based on existing NASA Earth science capabilities. Primary goals include: (1) supporting USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to better predict water supply deficits related to agricultural drought and food insecurity, and (2) provide indicators related to forecasted hydrological anomalies and conditions.

Disclaimer:  The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.

Displaying Items 31 - 34 of 34

3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA
Forecast for  3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

3-Month Aggregate Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Soil Percent Saturation : MENA
Forecast for  Soil Percent Saturation : MENAForecast for  Soil Percent Saturation : MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil (left) and Surface Soil (right) Percent Saturation Forecasts.

Percent saturation is calculated as 100*(volumetric soil moisture)/(volumetric soil porosity).

Variable:
Soil Percent Saturation
Surface Soil Moisture: MENA
Forecast for  Surface Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  Surface Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  Surface Soil Moisture: MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: MENA
Forecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture

Contact: Abheera Hazra (UMD/ESSIC; NASA/GSFC), Kristi Arsenault (SAIC; NASA/GSFC) or S. Shukla (UCSB) for more information.

References

  • Arsenault, K.R., and Coauthors, 2020: The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E1007–E1025, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0264.1.
  • Shukla, S., and Coauthors, 2020: Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1187-1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020
  • Hazra, A., and Coauthors, 2021: NASA's NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa. Journal of Hydrology (In review).

Original project details: The original project, Forecasting for Africa and the Middle East (FAME), was funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Program and included partners from NASA, USAID, USGS, UCSB, Johns Hopkins University, ICBA, and DoD/ERDC.  Details of the original project can be found here.