The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model (FLDAS-Forecast, Hazra et al. 2023) is run over Africa and the Middle East and produces monthly forecasts at 0.25° spatial resolution out to 5 months over Africa and the Middle East (-20 to 60°E, -40 to 40°N). Forecasts are typically available by the 15th of the first forecast month. As a custom instance of the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS, Arsenault et al. 2020), FLDAS-Forecast uses land surface models of Noah-MP (version 3.6) and NASA’s Catchment Model (CLSM, version 2.5), and HyMAP2 routing within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Initial conditions for the FLDAS-Forecast model are generated by forcing the models with CHIRPS precipitation and MERRA-2 non-precipitation meteorological datasets. Two types of forecasts are generated: 1) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-based forecasts using NMME precipitation and GEOS version 2 non-precipitation meteorological forecasts and 2) ensemble streamflow prediction method-based forecasts using CHIRPS and MERRA-2 meteorological datasets. FLDAS-Forecast hindcast and retrospective model outputs are available from 1982 to present by request. All indices (e.g., anomalies, percentiles, terciles) are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 hindcast climatology, with the exception of streamflow percentiles and terciles. Streamflow percentiles and terciles are calculated relative to January 1, 1991-December 31, 2020 retrospective model output. Please refer to the FLDAS Model Specification webpage for additional details on the FLDAS-Forecast system.
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