FLDAS-Forecast

Summary

The FLDAS-Forecast is a custom instance of NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS; Arsenault et al., 2020). The FLDAS-Forecast system was developed to provide seasonal drought forecasts that are relevant for USAID and USACE activities in the Middle East and Africa, based on existing NASA Earth science capabilities. Primary goals include: (1) supporting USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to better predict water supply deficits related to agricultural drought and food insecurity, and (2) provide indicators related to forecasted hydrological anomalies and conditions.

Disclaimer:  The below figures and forecast information are provisionally provided as experimental, and these products are for reference only and at user-own discretion and risk.

Displaying Items 21 - 30 of 34

Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
Forecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa

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Monthly Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa
Forecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Western AfricaForecast for 3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture: Western Africa

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3-Month Aggregate Surface Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Surface Soil Moisture
Precipitation-total: Continental Africa
Forecast for  Precipitation-total: Continental AfricaForecast for  Precipitation-total: Continental Africa

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Precipitation Anomaly (left) and Percentile (right) Forecasts

 

Variable:
Precipitation - Total
Continental Africa Forecast Percentile
Forecast for Continental Africa Forecast PercentileForecast for Continental Africa Forecast Percentile

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Precipitation (left) and Root Zone Soil Moisture (right) Percentile Forecasts

Variable:
Precipitation - Total, Root Zone Soil Moisture
Continental Africa Forecast Percentile
Forecast for Continental Africa Forecast PercentileForecast for Continental Africa Forecast Percentile

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Precipitation (left) and Root Zone Soil Moisture (right) Percentile Forecasts

Variable:
Precipitation - Total, Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture
Forecast for Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil MoistureForecast for Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture

The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of root zone soil moisture being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile). For example, the grid cells depicted by dark green [brown] color are likely to be in 'Above normal' ['Below Normal'] category. Probability values are shown only when the probability of being in a given category is greater than 40% and is in white otherwise. Note that climatologically, the probability of being in a given tercile category is 33%.

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Precipitation-total: MENA
Forecast for Precipitation-total: MENAForecast for Precipitation-total: MENA

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Precipitation Anomaly (left) and Percentile (right) Forecasts

Variable:
Precipitation - Total
Streamflow : MENA
Forecast for  Streamflow : MENAForecast for  Streamflow : MENAForecast for  Streamflow : MENAForecast for  Streamflow : MENA

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Monthly Streamflow Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), Standardized anomaly (lower left) and Probability tercile (lower right) Forecasts

Variable:
Streamflow
Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA
Forecast for  Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (upper left), Anomaly (upper right), and Standardized Anomaly (lower left) Forecasts

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture
Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA
Forecast for  Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENAForecast for  Probabilistic Forecasts for Root Zone Soil Moisture: MENA

Click on above figure for larger image.

Monthly Root Zone Soil Moisture Forecast Probabilities for ESP (left) and NMME (right)

The likelihood of departure from normal maps above are based on hydrologic forecast ensembles comprised of 36 members (1982-2017) for ESP and all members for NMME. These maps indicate the forecast probability (in %) of the given hydrologic variable (e.g. root zone soil moisture) being in 'Above Normal' (>67 percentile), 'Normal' (between 33 to 67 percentile) and 'Below Normal' (<33 percentile).

Variable:
Root Zone Soil Moisture

Contact: Abheera Hazra (UMD/ESSIC; NASA/GSFC), Kristi Arsenault (SAIC; NASA/GSFC) or S. Shukla (UCSB) for more information.

References

  • Arsenault, K.R., and Coauthors, 2020: The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E1007–E1025, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0264.1.
  • Shukla, S., and Coauthors, 2020: Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1187-1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020
  • Hazra, A., and Coauthors, 2021: NASA's NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa. Journal of Hydrology (In review).

Original project details: The original project, Forecasting for Africa and the Middle East (FAME), was funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Program and included partners from NASA, USAID, USGS, UCSB, Johns Hopkins University, ICBA, and DoD/ERDC.  Details of the original project can be found here.